Seven games, two homes, one winner
Baseball’s end of season playoffs happen in two stages. Firstly there are the American and National League playoffs, where the Eastern and Western division winners of each league play each other. Afterwards, the two playoff winners take part in the famous World Series, to create baseball’s World Champions. This is high-tension, big moment sport. What part does home advantage play in who wins?
Both the playoffs are the best of seven matches. So to ensure neither team has too much of an advantage, the first two games are played in the home stadium of the higher ranked team, the next three in the other team’s stadium; and the final two come back to the first team’s home stadium. Once a team has won four matches, the series is over. How a series starts can be very important.
Blue Jays and Mariners
In the 2025 American League playoffs, the Toronto Blue Jays are currently playing the Seattle Mariners. Having supported the Blue Jays since I first saw them in 1989, I’ve been watching with a vested interest in the outcome. Today will be game five and we’re waiting for normality to be restored.
Pitching up in Toronto
Game 1 was in the Rogers Stadium in Toronto, giving home advantage to the Blue Jays. If the play-offs go the whole seven-game distance, four of the seven games will be in Toronto’s stadium. That’s a narrow, but tangible, home advantage for Toronto. Statistically, the team with that marginal home advantage wins the series 52% of the time. That home advantage could just be enough.
Home sweet home
What does home advantage really get you? Familiar surroundings. Less travel. More nights in your own bed. Less fatigue. Family and friends close by. Familiar patterns and game day rhythms. The home dressing room. The playing field you know. All the usual facilities and off-field support. 45,000 thousand passionate fans cheering you on at four of your seven games, as opposed only 5,000 when you play away. Being in your own team’s home provides both psychological safety and a tribal sense of belonging.
In a baseball series, all the unfamiliarity, hostility and travel piles onto the away team four times instead of three. This playoff advantage gives the first home team the opportunity to get two-nil up in the series; and put enormous pressure on the other team. In 2025, that gave the initial advantage to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Regular Season home form
During the 162 game regular season (yes that’s right) Toronto won 94 games. They finished top of the American League East higher than the legendary New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Their home form included 54 wins and lost 27, being a 66.66% home win percentage. It included an 11 home game winning streak. The Jays were delighted to get four home games. But has it helped them?
The playoffs
Game 1 – The Seattle Mariners were playing in Toronto and were predicted to lose. The result caused a major shock. The Mariners won 3 v 1.
Game 2 – The Seattle Mariners were again predicted to lose. Toronto would bounce back at home. The Mariners spoiled the party again, winning 10 v 3.
Now all the Mariners had to do was win two of their three home matches, to win the playoff series and reach the World Series. They were now heavy favourites to win the playoffs 4 v 1 or even 4 v 0. The pressure was all on Toronto.
Game 3 – The Seattle Mariners were in form, on a roll and playing a team that has choked twice. This time Toronto spoiled the party and won 13 v 4 away.
Game 4 – Surely the Seattle Mariners would bounce back at home? Toronto once again spoiled the party again and won 8 v 2 away.
In tonight’s Game 5, the Seattle Mariners are at home and predicted to win. Will playing at home help them? Or will be be another example of the home disadvantage in this series?
Far, far Away
In the first four games, the home team scored a total of 10 runs. Hitting an average of only 2.5 runs at home is low. Toronto averaged more than double that, with 5.39 runs at home, in 2025’s regular season.
Even more noteworthy, in those first four games, the away team scored a total of 34 runs. That’s an average of 8.5 runs a game. That’s very high. Toronto only hit an average of 4.69 runs away in the regular season, about half as much.
So far, the home team has performed less than half as well as normal; and the away team has performed nearly twice as well as happened in the regular season. The away team has scored more than three times the number of runs that the home team did. These statistics are clear outliers from the norm. So far this series has defied all the predictions. Playing at home has been a massive disadvantage to both teams. There’s been no regression to the mean yet. Why is that?
Why is both teams’ home form so bad?
Toronto last made the World Series in 1993, thirty-two years ago. The pressure to make the World Series in 2025 is huge. It’s been building for over three decades. The Toronto supporters are absolutely desperate for success, but they don’t believe. Their tension and pent-up expectations load a huge weight of pressure onto the players. The players have got to carry the hopes and dreams of a whole city on their shoulders. That pressure would be hard enough to deal with, but Toronto is the only Canadian city in Baseball’s Major League, so the hopes and dreams are even heavier. They are those of an entire nation.
What about the Seattle Mariners? They have never even been to a World Series. Having been trying ever since 1977, the pressure on their players is even more acute. It’s stifling their ability to relax and play ball. Their emotions are ruling their heads.
Playing in front of of your own fans can be a major advantage. But when the pressure to win is ramped up as sky high as this, home is last place you want to play. The fear of failing to win in front of all your family, friends and fans can be overwhelming. It tightens you up. It makes you question yourself. It fills the silences with doubts.
In this series, neither of these two teams has the big game experience to drown doubting out with positive self-talk. Playing away from home has given both teams the release and freedom to play their best baseball. Usually, the home field advantages provide a net positive position. In this series, the pressure of performing at home has created more of a net negative impact.
Will either side’s home form improve?
There are three games left. Will the away team keep winning? Maybe yes.
Seattle has one more chance tonight to play through that pressure and take a 3 v 2 lead to Toronto. If they can’t, Toronto still has to win a game at home or lose the series. And whichever team wins, will have to do it all over again in the World Series.
Afterthought
After those two losses at home, the Seattle fans were left deflated. Their chance to win the series using home advantage had come and gone. The expectations of those fans dropped markedly and so did the pressure on the players.
Manufacturing a re-set in team dynamics can change its mindset. So for Game 5, the Seattle line-up was deliberately altered to create “a little bit of a different flow”. Added to that, faster, bolder pitching changes were made by the coaches during the game.
Mixing things up shook off the malaise. The positive energy returned. Could Seattle break the series cycle? A Grand Slam home run gave them four runs at once and won them Game 5, at home 6 v 2.
The deciding Games 6 and 7 went back to Toronto. With their confidence boosted by two away wins, the players felt less pressure to perform. Whilst Toronto’s confidence returned, Seattle’s waned, knowing they had to repeat their earlier success away in Toronto to win.
The Blue Jays rallied just in time, winning both their remaining home games and clinching the series 4 v 3.